Three automated trading systems (Stock Selection, IRA, TSP) with ML-driven risk monitoring and automated execution. This page shows the complete technical architecture.
Automated S&P 500 stock selection via Alpaca. 6 taxable variants (N1–N6) plus 3 taxable-in-IRA variants (N1i, N6i, N1ir) run daily, generating buy/sell orders executed automatically in connected brokerage accounts.
Same ranking system with IRA-optimized variants. 6 IRA variants (I1, I2, I4, I5, I6, I9) are tuned for tax-advantaged accounts — no wash sale constraints, no tax-lot harvesting needed.
Daily C/S/I/G fund switching recommendations based on an ML model trained on macroeconomic indicators. Designed to stay within the 2-IFT-per-month limit while capturing major trend shifts.
Four layers of risk analysis update daily and feed into every portfolio decision.
Bull / Neutral / Bear classification using SPY price action, moving averages, and VIX. Updated daily. Drives portfolio sizing across all variants.
→ Market Cycle & Risk378-model ML ensemble estimating probability of a 5%+ drawdown within 21 trading days. Uses advanced calibration for reliable confidence intervals.
→ Crash PredictionBear-to-bull transition detection with 94% historical recall. Monitors breadth expansion, VIX compression, and momentum shifts to identify market bottoms early.
→ Advisory DashboardSingle-page daily decision view combining regime, crash risk, sector strength, and composite risk score into an actionable summary.
→ Signal DashboardSeasonal timing signals for new capital deployment. Combines historical seasonality, current VIX levels, and drawdown proximity to recommend optimal entry points.
Step-by-step setup for taxable accounts (Alpaca), IRA accounts, and TSP. Includes variant recommendations for each account type.
How the 15-variant system works end to end — signal generation, portfolio construction, and trade execution. Includes the full variant table with IDs and descriptions.
Runs every market day. No trades on weekends or holidays. TSP signals follow a separate schedule based on fund price availability.
Portfolio summary, new signals, risk levels — sent each trading day
Email notification when the model recommends a fund switch
Text message notifications for urgent signals
Immediate notification when crash probability exceeds threshold
| Page | Description |
|---|---|
| Trading | |
| Paper Trading Dashboard | Live tracking of all 15 paper trading variants with portfolio values, daily P&L, and expandable position details. |
| Current Portfolio | Every stock held across all 15 variants right now — grouped by account type (Taxable, Taxable-in-IRA, IRA) with cost basis and unrealized P&L. |
| Backtest Results | Rolling-window backtest validation for all 15 variants across 12 time windows. Includes annual returns, Monte Carlo analysis, and overlay impact. |
| TSP | |
| TSP Dashboard | Current fund recommendation, model accuracy, fund performance, Monte Carlo simulations, and historical backtest for TSP switching strategy. |
| Risk Monitoring | |
| Signal Dashboard | Daily decision view combining market regime, crash probability, composite risk score, and sector strength into one page. |
| Recovery Advisory | Bear-to-bull transition signals with 94% recall. Monitors breadth, momentum, and VIX to identify recovery opportunities. |
| Market Cycle & Risk | Full market regime history, cycle phase analysis, VIX trends, and multi-tier risk score breakdown. |
| Crash Prediction | ML crash probability model with current signal, calibration accuracy, historical track record, and Monte Carlo stress tests. |
| Capital Deployment | |
| Buy-In Advisor | Seasonal timing analysis, VaR estimates, and drawdown proximity signals to guide optimal entry points for new capital. |
| Getting Started Guide | Step-by-step setup instructions for taxable (Alpaca), IRA, and TSP accounts with variant recommendations. |
| Automated Trading | How the 15-variant system works — signal generation, portfolio construction, trade execution, and the full variant table. |
| Account | |
| Connect Alpaca | Link an Alpaca brokerage account for automated paper or live trading. |
| Account Settings | Choose a strategy variant, configure trading preferences, and manage API keys. |
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